Taos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

730
FXUS65 KABQ 152100
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through this week, especially along the east
  slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow.

- Smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona could create hazy
  conditions with lower air quality for portions of southwestern
  New Mexico. Sensitive groups such as the elderly and those with
  respiratory conditions will be impacted by the poor air quality.

- Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire
  weather late this weekend and early next week. Winds will be
  strongest on Sunday and Monday when there will be an increased
  risk of rapid fire spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Breezy to locally windy conditions are present this afternoon across
northern and central NM thanks a lagging weak shortwave skirting
northern NM. Clear skies reign supreme tonight, aside from where
smoke from the Greer Fire in eastern AZ settles into parts of west-
central NM. The main areas for this will focus through Catron and
western Socorro Counties, and northward into southern portions of
Cibola County. Friday sees more pleasant weather with a weak
shortwave ridge crossing the state ahead of another weak H5 low over
the northern Baja Peninsula. Temperatures near normal with standard
afternoon breezes will be the rule.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

The shortwave trough from Baja California will be making its way
though the Desert Southwest on Saturday, bringing in a stream of
high clouds for southeastern parts of New Mexico. Increased mid-
level moisture may also promote some mid and high cloud development
for central areas, but model soundings indicate that conditions will
still be quite dry, so confidence for virga and sprinkles is still
low (<10%). As this shortwave moves through New Mexico, a slot of
dry southwesterly air will push into southern and eastern areas,
dropping relative humidity values into the single digits and
elevating fire weather concerns. Lee side surface troughing develops
during the afternoon east of the Sacramento mountains. Along with
some stronger flow aloft, conditions look to be breezy to gusty for
parts of the Rio Grande Valley and southern highland areas.

A deeper trough digging into the Great Basing will usher in much
stronger mid and upper level flow into the region for Sunday and
Monday. The polar jet will dig south alongside the trough, extending
a robust 100 kt upper level jet streak over the northern half of the
state. The recent run of models has scaled back a bit on the 700 mb
winds for Sunday (40 to 45 kts), but with a strong 987-991 mb
surface low deepening over southeastern Colorado, widespread gusty
winds are still expected. Current forecast has 30 to 35 kt gusts for
central and western areas. Meanwhile, the area of highest confidence
for the strongest gusts is in the northeast plains and highlands
where 40 to 50 kt gusts may be observed in the afternoon.

As the trough axis shifts east, another upper level low will dip
south into the Four Corners on Monday. This system will shift winds
more WNW and bring in a greater slug of moisture into the region,
increasing precipitation chances for western and northern areas.
Once again, guidance is not set on the exact track and timing of
this system, but precipitation amounts and coverage have trended up
for Monday afternoon, with the high terrain along the Colorado
border seeing the greatest chances of rain. The back half of the jet
max looks to push through as the low moves east, this time with
stronger winds a little bit further south. This will lead to more
gusty conditions on Monday afternoon, particularly along and east
of the southern half of the central mountain chain. A backdoor
front will then shift winds NNE on Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the system exits into the Great Plains. Temperatures
will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal across the state for Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures then begin to warm back up and winds
settle as pressure heights rise and the upper level pattern turns
to a weak zonal flow towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR prevails areawide as breezy to windy southwesterly to westerly
winds pickup this afternoon, persisting to the early evening
before diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon give way to lesser
winds diminishing the fire weather threat Friday. A fire growing
pattern begins to return Saturday as southwesterly winds strengthen
with low humidity pushing into the southern half of the state. This
pattern amplifies Sunday as the main storm system responsible for
the stronger winds tracks along the NM/CO border Sunday. Winds veer
westerly, strengthening through the day Sunday with widespread
critical fire weather conditions forecast. The main inhibiting
factor for fire growth will be how receptive finer fuels will be
through the eastern plains of NM where recent green-up has been
observed. A second storm system quick on the heels of the first
brings another dry and windy weather pattern to the southern and
eastern halves of the state. Cooler and wetter weather will reach
the northwestern and north-central portions of NM Monday. Areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley dry out and warm up Tuesday,
as conditions cool alongside increased humidity through the eastern
plains behind a cold front.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  75  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  28  70  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  35  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  30  73  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  70  39  71 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  32  75  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  35  74  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  76  48  76 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  37  73  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  80  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  34  83  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  43  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  32  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  63  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  30  71  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  69  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  40  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  40  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  83  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  42  83  40  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  82  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  40  83  39  84 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  45  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  43  83  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  47  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  45  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  86  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  39  75  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  76  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  40  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  79  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  73  47  72 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  36  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  36  77  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  37  77  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  40  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  45  81  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  41  78  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  44  87  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  83  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  86  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  50  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  48  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  46  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  55  91  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  48  81  52  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24